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Thread: Changes occuring in the Middle East

  1. #1
    Hoarding ASL items....... Kevin Kenneally's Avatar
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    Changes occuring in the Middle East

    What will happen when all the changes in the Middle East have occured?

    What will the new government in Libya use for AFVs?

    Will the Egyptian Army become as large and almost as powerful as they were in October 1973?

    Will Syria decide to finally "squash" the Arab Spring participants?

    How will NATO react?

    Will Turkey "flex" a military option to the Isreali blockade of Gaza?
    Kevin Kenneally
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    Spec Op Clergy ADMIN Scott Tortorice's Avatar
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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East

    Wow. Lots of questions here. Let's see:

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Kenneally View Post
    What will happen when all the changes in the Middle East have occured?
    I will always be a Burke-ian pessimist, so my responses are not going to be positive.

    I think we are seeing the Middle East unwind in a very negative, very chaotic way. Not that the pre-Arab Spring ME was something worthwhile, but it was structured in a way to keep the chaos largely to a minimum. But now that structure is coming apart at the seams, and the wolves (Iran and its proxies) are gathering at the door, waiting for the whole rotten structure to come down so they can move in.

    What will the new government in Libya use for AFVs?
    It's irrelevant. The next major ME war won't start with armor but with a nuclear blast. And I don't throw that out there lightly. Nukes are the only thing that can guarantee success against Israel, or an US-backed Arab nation. That is why Iran wants them...and will probably get them.

    Will the Egyptian Army become as large and almost as powerful as they were in October 1973?
    See above.

    Will Syria decide to finally "squash" the Arab Spring participants?
    They are certainly trying.

    How will NATO react?
    Like always - with confusion, indecision and, ultimately, inaction. Which is what is already happening.

    Will Turkey "flex" a military option to the Isreali blockade of Gaza?
    Turkey is what scares me. Turkey is slowly slipping into the extremist court. The chaos this could cause not only in the region, but for NATO/Europe as well, is almost unthinkable. I believe Turkey will be key to bringing stability to the region, so if we cannot get Turkey firmly back into the West's camp, well, the outcome is not going to be good.

    I can't help to think that we are witnessing a general collapse of the international order along the lines of when Roman collapsed.
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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East

    Thanks Scott.
    Kevin Kenneally
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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Tortorice View Post
    I think we are seeing the Middle East unwind in a very negative, very chaotic way. Not that the pre-Arab Spring ME was something worthwhile, but it was structured in a way to keep the chaos largely to a minimum. But now that structure is coming apart at the seams, and the wolves (Iran and its proxies) are gathering at the door, waiting for the whole rotten structure to come down so they can move in.
    What are the movements goals and ideas? Chaos is just motion from one mode to another and won't last. Where the motion is going, is more important.

    It's irrelevant. The next major ME war won't start with armor but with a nuclear blast. And I don't throw that out there lightly. Nukes are the only thing that can guarantee success against Israel, or an US-backed Arab nation. That is why Iran wants them...and will probably get them.
    What makes you think that the Arabs want a nuclear exchange with Israel or any other country? Rulers don't want to rule over glass and sand.

    For Kevin's question on AFVs, they are fast becoming a policing weapon. If it can't survive an RPG hit, it doesn't matter what you pick. Something cheap that can throw HE around is fine. Armor matters very little in modern non-NCB wars unless it is RPG-proof. "But you can sit at range and rely on frontal armor" -- indirect fire is cheaper and often more effective.

    Like always - with confusion, indecision and, ultimately, inaction. Which is what is already happening.
    On the public side of things only.

    I can't help to think that we are witnessing a general collapse of the international order along the lines of when Roman collapsed.
    Erm, no... that involved entire changes in thought. This is more an implementation of modern western political ideology. The middle eastern order and modernity didn't mix, and as soon as mass media brought that thought and the means to share those thoughts to the many, they acted.

    This is a renewal, not a wholly new mode or order.

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    Spec Op Clergy ADMIN Scott Tortorice's Avatar
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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Pillar View Post
    What makes you think that the Arabs want a nuclear exchange with Israel or any other country? Rulers don't want to rule over glass and sand.
    The next ME war isn't going to be based on territorial ambitions, it is going to be based on ideological hatred - specifically, antisemitism and Sunni / Shiite hatred. They're not looking to rule, they're looking to exterminate.

    Erm, no... that involved entire changes in thought. This is more an implementation of modern western political ideology. The middle eastern order and modernity didn't mix, and as soon as mass media brought that thought and the means to share those thoughts to the many, they acted.

    This is a renewal, not a wholly new mode or order.
    The ME is just a regional symptom of a general global re-alignment. The old order, laid down by the post WWI & post-WWII victors, is collapsing under the weight of a Western decline and new technology (the internet primarily) that has allowed for an unprecedented re-distribution of power from centralized governments to non-centralized popular movements. It is not inconceivable that in the not too distant future, the global order will no longer involve nation-states but be organized along other, less centralized power structures.
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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Tortorice View Post
    The next ME war isn't going to be based on territorial ambitions, it is going to be based on ideological hatred - specifically, antisemitism and Sunni / Shiite hatred. They're not looking to rule, they're looking to exterminate.
    Possibly! (Correct)

    The ME is just a regional symptom of a general global re-alignment. The old order, laid down by the post WWI & post-WWII victors, is collapsing under the weight of a Western decline and new technology (the internet primarily) that has allowed for an unprecedented re-distribution of power from centralized governments to non-centralized popular movements. It is not inconceivable that in the not too distant future, the global order will no longer involve nation-states but be organized along other, less centralized power structures.
    Possibly! (Correct)



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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East

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    Re: Changes occuring in the Middle East


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