What will happen when all the changes in the Middle East have occured?
What will the new government in Libya use for AFVs?
Will the Egyptian Army become as large and almost as powerful as they were in October 1973?
Will Syria decide to finally "squash" the Arab Spring participants?
How will NATO react?
Will Turkey "flex" a military option to the Isreali blockade of Gaza?
Kevin Kenneally
Charter member of the "OFF Squad"
Visiting your local Army Reserve & National Guard units to play ASL.
Wow. Lots of questions here.Let's see:
I will always be a Burke-ian pessimist, so my responses are not going to be positive.Originally Posted by Kevin Kenneally
I think we are seeing the Middle East unwind in a very negative, very chaotic way. Not that the pre-Arab Spring ME was something worthwhile, but it was structured in a way to keep the chaos largely to a minimum. But now that structure is coming apart at the seams, and the wolves (Iran and its proxies) are gathering at the door, waiting for the whole rotten structure to come down so they can move in.
It's irrelevant. The next major ME war won't start with armor but with a nuclear blast. And I don't throw that out there lightly. Nukes are the only thing that can guarantee success against Israel, or an US-backed Arab nation. That is why Iran wants them...and will probably get them.What will the new government in Libya use for AFVs?
See above.Will the Egyptian Army become as large and almost as powerful as they were in October 1973?
They are certainly trying.Will Syria decide to finally "squash" the Arab Spring participants?
Like always - with confusion, indecision and, ultimately, inaction. Which is what is already happening.How will NATO react?
Turkey is what scares me. Turkey is slowly slipping into the extremist court. The chaos this could cause not only in the region, but for NATO/Europe as well, is almost unthinkable. I believe Turkey will be key to bringing stability to the region, so if we cannot get Turkey firmly back into the West's camp, well, the outcome is not going to be good.Will Turkey "flex" a military option to the Isreali blockade of Gaza?
I can't help to think that we are witnessing a general collapse of the international order along the lines of when Roman collapsed.
Burke's Joystick: Because Edmund Burke would have been a gamer!
Thanks Scott.
Kevin Kenneally
Charter member of the "OFF Squad"
Visiting your local Army Reserve & National Guard units to play ASL.
What are the movements goals and ideas? Chaos is just motion from one mode to another and won't last. Where the motion is going, is more important.
What makes you think that the Arabs want a nuclear exchange with Israel or any other country? Rulers don't want to rule over glass and sand.It's irrelevant. The next major ME war won't start with armor but with a nuclear blast. And I don't throw that out there lightly. Nukes are the only thing that can guarantee success against Israel, or an US-backed Arab nation. That is why Iran wants them...and will probably get them.
For Kevin's question on AFVs, they are fast becoming a policing weapon. If it can't survive an RPG hit, it doesn't matter what you pick. Something cheap that can throw HE around is fine. Armor matters very little in modern non-NCB wars unless it is RPG-proof. "But you can sit at range and rely on frontal armor" -- indirect fire is cheaper and often more effective.
On the public side of things only.Like always - with confusion, indecision and, ultimately, inaction. Which is what is already happening.
Erm, no... that involved entire changes in thought. This is more an implementation of modern western political ideology. The middle eastern order and modernity didn't mix, and as soon as mass media brought that thought and the means to share those thoughts to the many, they acted.I can't help to think that we are witnessing a general collapse of the international order along the lines of when Roman collapsed.
This is a renewal, not a wholly new mode or order.
The next ME war isn't going to be based on territorial ambitions, it is going to be based on ideological hatred - specifically, antisemitism and Sunni / Shiite hatred. They're not looking to rule, they're looking to exterminate.
The ME is just a regional symptom of a general global re-alignment. The old order, laid down by the post WWI & post-WWII victors, is collapsing under the weight of a Western decline and new technology (the internet primarily) that has allowed for an unprecedented re-distribution of power from centralized governments to non-centralized popular movements. It is not inconceivable that in the not too distant future, the global order will no longer involve nation-states but be organized along other, less centralized power structures.Erm, no... that involved entire changes in thought. This is more an implementation of modern western political ideology. The middle eastern order and modernity didn't mix, and as soon as mass media brought that thought and the means to share those thoughts to the many, they acted.
This is a renewal, not a wholly new mode or order.
Burke's Joystick: Because Edmund Burke would have been a gamer!
Possibly! (Correct)
Possibly! (Correct)The ME is just a regional symptom of a general global re-alignment. The old order, laid down by the post WWI & post-WWII victors, is collapsing under the weight of a Western decline and new technology (the internet primarily) that has allowed for an unprecedented re-distribution of power from centralized governments to non-centralized popular movements. It is not inconceivable that in the not too distant future, the global order will no longer involve nation-states but be organized along other, less centralized power structures.
What do I win?
You win the most precious gift of all: wisdom.
Burke's Joystick: Because Edmund Burke would have been a gamer!
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